So, they're patting themselves on the back for...using weather forecasts? Seriously? It's 2025, and we're acting like using weather forecasts to manage water is some kind of revolutionary breakthrough. Give me a break.
The Army Corps of Engineers, Sonoma Water, UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution, California DWR – sounds like the cast of a bad disaster movie. They all got together to update the water control manual for Coyote Valley Dam, and apparently, this is groundbreaking. They're calling it "forecast-informed reservoir operations," or FIRO. Sounds like something out of a sci-fi novel, but it just means they're finally using weather forecasts to decide when to release water from the dam. New forecast-informed decision-making tool implemented at Coyote Valley Dam and Lake Mendocino
U.S. Representative Jared Huffman is quoted as saying, "With this update, operations will be based on the latest science instead of outdated guesswork." Outdated guesswork? So, what were they doing before? Consulting a Magic 8-Ball? I mean, come on!
And this FIRO approach? Apparently, it's been around since 2017 at Lake Mendocino. Seven years to update a damn manual. Bureaucracy at its finest.
They keep talking about atmospheric rivers like they're some new phenomenon. Newsflash: they've been around forever. Now, offcourse, we have better ways of tracking them, thanks to "Hurricane Hunters" and drifting buoys. But let’s be real, is improved forecasting really enough to solve our water problems? Color me skeptical.
Marty Ralph, research meteorologist and founding director of CW3E, says this marks a "major milestone to implement science-based decision support tools." Okay, Marty, but what happens when the science is wrong? What happens when the forecast misses an atmospheric river, or underestimates its intensity? Do we just shrug and say, "Oops, sorry about the flooding?"
Here's the part that really gets me: the revised manual allows for an additional 11,650 acre-feet of water storage "when forecast and advanced decision support tools indicate that it is safe to do so." Safe to do so? Who decides what's safe? And what are the consequences if they screw it up?
Then I read about "Water Week 2025" and the idea of avoiding "water FOMO" – fear of missing out on water. Who comes up with this garbage? It's insulting to anyone who's actually struggled with water scarcity.
The article goes on to say that FIRO "avoids the fear of missing out (FOMO) on water that you could have stored if you had better forecasting." Seriously? We're turning water management into a trendy social media problem now? Are we going to start seeing influencers posting about their "water hauls"? FIRO to Avoid Water FOMO: How to Save Every Drop with Smart Reservoir Operations in California
The whole thing feels like a giant exercise in self-congratulation. "Look at us, we're so smart, we're using weather forecasts!" Meanwhile, the underlying problems – aging infrastructure, unsustainable water use, and a changing climate – are still staring us in the face.
It's a band-aid on a gaping wound. They're trying to sound innovative, but it's just common sense dressed up in fancy acronyms. Maybe I'm being too harsh... but I doubt it.
